Orange County SC v. Oakland Roots - Match Preview (September 25, 2021)
Oakland Roots play away to Orange County SC at Orange County Great Park at 7:00 p.m. The match will be broadcast on ESPN+ only. This is the third match-up between these two PLAYOFF CONTENDERS.
[source: Oakland Roots SC]
Roots’ History Against Orange County: 0-0-2
Last Match-Up Between These Teams
These teams first met on June 12 at the Orange County Great Park. My first preview post was (poorly formatted) and gave Stephen Gerrard and, really, the entire nation of Scotland, quite a lot of grief. https://oaklandrootsblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/orange-county-sc-v-oakland-roots-june.html
I stand by every word of it.
In that match, the newly signed Klimenta went straight into the opening lineup alongside Tarek Morad, and there was only a single big chance other than the OC goal. Memo Diaz played in an interesting position in this one, as an outside attacking midfielder, which makes some sense with the available options on the bench. That loss put Oakland to 1-1-2 to finish off a four-game road trip, and Lawson observed that the team would be “competitive for the playoffs” if they could “successfully defend their home turf.” As it is, what they couldn’t do was play specifically on their home turf.
The teams met again on July 31. This was the last game that the Roots had to play at Las Positas because of the turf at Laney--the subsequent field trips have all been because of scheduling conflicts.
The game was a disappointing 3-0 loss.
Of all the Livemore games, this might have been the Livermost. The ambient wind was something like 30 mph, making this a little like playing in the eye of a hurricane. Mikko Kuningas opened the scoring on a stunning free kick, significantly assisted by the wind, and then five minutes later Oakland’s defense made a couple of rough but understandable mistakes allowing Damus to double the lead. Greene and Klimenta were still a pretty new partnership, and Blanchette was in only his third start in goal for the Roots.
The Roots could not get anything together going forward, trying to play into the wind. We were really looking forward to what the Roots could do with the wind at their backs in the second half, and there were signs of hope, but the referee was having none of that, sending Max Ornstil off for basically nothing in the 55th minute. This game was noteworthy because Joe Restani started. The dilemma of having academy call-ups that you’re excited to watch is that you don't get to see them unless critical players are injured or the game is out of reach. It would be great if the Roots had more laughers so we could see Restani and Mariona get on the pitch more
Orange County’s Form Since the Last Match-Up
The OC (don’t call it that) is 2-3-3 since these teams met at the end of July (the Roots have played 14 matches to OC’s 8--just ridiculous).
[source: FBRef]
Orange County followed their win over Oakland with a loss to LA Galaxy II, a draw to Phoenix at Wild Horse Pass, and a humiliating loss to Tacoma. Orange County then beat San Diego 2-1 (the result of champions) and a 0-0 draw to Charleston. Charleston is sixth in the Atlantic Division, but have an above average offense and below average defense, so this is not the result you’d predict (you wouldn't; I would, do to my exceptional forecasting acumen). I do wonder if the three-time-zone road trip is a muscle that folks in the USL have just not exercised. It's one thing to train yourself to play shortly after a two-hour flight to Tacoma or a one-hour flight to LA, but it’s something completely different to take a (minimum) 5 hour flight to Tampa/Charleston where your wakeup time is going to be three hours different.
On September 3, Orange County hosted El Paso Locomotive at OC Great Park and pulled out a 2-2 draw. El Paso is in a tie for third most points in USL, behind only Phoenix and Tampa, so this is a hell of a result.
The first goal was a genuine beauty by Moar from the corner of the box to the far corner of the net. Tate Schmitt for Phoenix picked up a second yellow for a (dumb) tactical tackle from behind to stop an Orange County breakaway.
[Source: FBRef]
When the Roots dropped those points to Galaxy II, they missed their easy opportunity to catch Tacoma Defiance for a playoff spot. But when have the Roots done anything the easy way this season? On Wednesday night, Roots took all three from San Diego.
[Source: Jon Comeaux]
When Hertzog picked up a yellow in the 23rd, and then continued to talk an egregious amount of shit, I really thought we might get to see him sent off. Hertzog has joined Tom Brewitt (Tacoma) for me as most hated rival player. Unfortunately, it was Collin Martin, the rival player I most want the Roots to sign, who added a wonderstrike of his own to tie things up at the end of the first half. Jose Hernandez’s, uh, tepid penalty gave Roots the lead back in the 63rd, and then Roots spent most of the rest of the match collecting yellow cards.
Here is the Pacific Division table:
Roots’ History Against Orange County: 0-0-2
Last Match-Up Between These Teams
These teams first met on June 12 at the Orange County Great Park. My first preview post was (poorly formatted) and gave Stephen Gerrard and, really, the entire nation of Scotland, quite a lot of grief. https://oaklandrootsblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/orange-county-sc-v-oakland-roots-june.html
I stand by every word of it.
In that match, the newly signed Klimenta went straight into the opening lineup alongside Tarek Morad, and there was only a single big chance other than the OC goal. Memo Diaz played in an interesting position in this one, as an outside attacking midfielder, which makes some sense with the available options on the bench. That loss put Oakland to 1-1-2 to finish off a four-game road trip, and Lawson observed that the team would be “competitive for the playoffs” if they could “successfully defend their home turf.” As it is, what they couldn’t do was play specifically on their home turf.
The teams met again on July 31. This was the last game that the Roots had to play at Las Positas because of the turf at Laney--the subsequent field trips have all been because of scheduling conflicts.
The game was a disappointing 3-0 loss.
Of all the Livemore games, this might have been the Livermost. The ambient wind was something like 30 mph, making this a little like playing in the eye of a hurricane. Mikko Kuningas opened the scoring on a stunning free kick, significantly assisted by the wind, and then five minutes later Oakland’s defense made a couple of rough but understandable mistakes allowing Damus to double the lead. Greene and Klimenta were still a pretty new partnership, and Blanchette was in only his third start in goal for the Roots.
The Roots could not get anything together going forward, trying to play into the wind. We were really looking forward to what the Roots could do with the wind at their backs in the second half, and there were signs of hope, but the referee was having none of that, sending Max Ornstil off for basically nothing in the 55th minute. This game was noteworthy because Joe Restani started. The dilemma of having academy call-ups that you’re excited to watch is that you don't get to see them unless critical players are injured or the game is out of reach. It would be great if the Roots had more laughers so we could see Restani and Mariona get on the pitch more
Orange County’s Form Since the Last Match-Up
The OC (don’t call it that) is 2-3-3 since these teams met at the end of July (the Roots have played 14 matches to OC’s 8--just ridiculous).
Orange County followed their win over Oakland with a loss to LA Galaxy II, a draw to Phoenix at Wild Horse Pass, and a humiliating loss to Tacoma. Orange County then beat San Diego 2-1 (the result of champions) and a 0-0 draw to Charleston. Charleston is sixth in the Atlantic Division, but have an above average offense and below average defense, so this is not the result you’d predict (you wouldn't; I would, do to my exceptional forecasting acumen). I do wonder if the three-time-zone road trip is a muscle that folks in the USL have just not exercised. It's one thing to train yourself to play shortly after a two-hour flight to Tacoma or a one-hour flight to LA, but it’s something completely different to take a (minimum) 5 hour flight to Tampa/Charleston where your wakeup time is going to be three hours different.
On September 3, Orange County hosted El Paso Locomotive at OC Great Park and pulled out a 2-2 draw. El Paso is in a tie for third most points in USL, behind only Phoenix and Tampa, so this is a hell of a result.
El Paso opened the scoring with a strong move down to the right, a simple cross to the top of the box and an emphatic shot to the top corner from some midfielder. Orange County leveled in the 60th minute, with Eric Calvillo busting a gut on the break down the right and hitting Damus with a perfect pass to finish with his first touch one-time from about the penalty spot at a full sprint. Six minutes later, OC went ahead after forcing a turnover deep into Locomotive territory. Brent Richards had acres of space on the right and seemingly limitless time to set for his cross, change his mind, and then cross from a different angle, sweeping in a huge arcing cross that was juuuuust too far out for the El Paso keeper to come and contest, but that Sean Okoli thumped in. In the 83rd, Orange County had a free kick from what we like to call “Wal Fall range,” but all the could do was hit the woodwork. They would live to regret the miss, as El Paso would grab the equalizer on a very short-range header off of a cross that was deflected but not controlled by the OC keeper.
In their next match, Orange County completely overwhelmed Las Vegas 3-0, in what was the Lights’ 8th straight loss (Oakland’s 1-0 win in the mists was Las Vegas’s 7th, and that streak has now stretched to 9). It took Orange County just shy of the full first half to get on the scoresheet, but then Mohamad Traore managed to pick up a first yellow in the 50th and talked himself into a second in the 53rd. Lights’ keeper Rando really got his money’s worth in giving up a penalty in the 83rd, absolutely laying out the Orange County attacker, and Damus picked up Orange County’s third when he skipped over a tackle by Rando that probably would have also resulted in a penalty. The Lights are really bad and it sucks that Roots lost the COVID match to them.
In their next match, Orange County completely overwhelmed Las Vegas 3-0, in what was the Lights’ 8th straight loss (Oakland’s 1-0 win in the mists was Las Vegas’s 7th, and that streak has now stretched to 9). It took Orange County just shy of the full first half to get on the scoresheet, but then Mohamad Traore managed to pick up a first yellow in the 50th and talked himself into a second in the 53rd. Lights’ keeper Rando really got his money’s worth in giving up a penalty in the 83rd, absolutely laying out the Orange County attacker, and Damus picked up Orange County’s third when he skipped over a tackle by Rando that probably would have also resulted in a penalty. The Lights are really bad and it sucks that Roots lost the COVID match to them.
Orange County’s most recent match was a 2-1 loss to Phoenix Rising at Wild Horse Pass.
The first goal was a genuine beauty by Moar from the corner of the box to the far corner of the net. Tate Schmitt for Phoenix picked up a second yellow for a (dumb) tactical tackle from behind to stop an Orange County breakaway.
Orange County would equalize shortly into the second half from a great header by an (admittedly) pretty open Damus in the box. Despite being shortstaffed, Phoenix was able to take the lead again on a tap in in the 88th. Feel a little bad about for the (alleged) Orange County fans, this was a very soccer version of the problem with the prevent defense.
So Orange County enters this match 1-1-1 in their last three, with a win over a terrible team, a draw to a great team at home, and a loss to a great team on the road. Orange County are good, but the Roots really aren’t the team they were the last two times these teams met.
Roots Form Since the Last Match-Up
The 1-0 loss to LA Galaxy II is a frustrating blemish on what remains an incredible run of form:
So Orange County enters this match 1-1-1 in their last three, with a win over a terrible team, a draw to a great team at home, and a loss to a great team on the road. Orange County are good, but the Roots really aren’t the team they were the last two times these teams met.
Roots Form Since the Last Match-Up
The 1-0 loss to LA Galaxy II is a frustrating blemish on what remains an incredible run of form:
When the Roots dropped those points to Galaxy II, they missed their easy opportunity to catch Tacoma Defiance for a playoff spot. But when have the Roots done anything the easy way this season? On Wednesday night, Roots took all three from San Diego.
Watching those highlights, I had completely forgotten that Rodriguez bicycle kick was only in the 6th minute. What a goal. I can’t believe that those Wal Fall goals now have a ceiling of 2nd and 3rd best goals on the season. I will be showing this picture Comeaux took to my grandchildren.
When Hertzog picked up a yellow in the 23rd, and then continued to talk an egregious amount of shit, I really thought we might get to see him sent off. Hertzog has joined Tom Brewitt (Tacoma) for me as most hated rival player. Unfortunately, it was Collin Martin, the rival player I most want the Roots to sign, who added a wonderstrike of his own to tie things up at the end of the first half. Jose Hernandez’s, uh, tepid penalty gave Roots the lead back in the 63rd, and then Roots spent most of the rest of the match collecting yellow cards.
Here is the Pacific Division table:
[Source: FBRef]
For whatever reason FBref puts Tacoma over Oakland here, but Oakland currently holds the tiebreaker which is head-to-head record. The second tie-breaker is goal differential in head-to-head matches, which Roots currently leads by two goals. The next tie-breaker after that is in-division points, so we don’t need to worry about running up the margins. Obviously this is currently academic; the Roots don’t play Tacoma again until October 20, when the odds of them being on the same points as Tacoma are low. Speaking of which, I put together this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gwkMqCA8WVvypzQRv7k-wFPTyUQcU9y6NH2Q2uE_xHQ/edit?usp=sharing
I will try to keep this updated as we move forward, and will re-share it in future blog posts.
Every relevant Pacific Division team has an end to the season that is completely loaded with divisional matches. Sac and Galaxy may need a little luck, Rising and Lights' fates are sealed, but everyone else I think controls their destiny not just with making the playoffs but with what their seeding would be.
Predictions
Bloom - Orange County appear to be a good, but not great, team. Ronaldo Damus is a good striker with 13 goals, but their leading assists man (and tied for second-most goals) is Chris Wehan, who you may know now plays for New Mexico United. Ever since it became clear that the Roots could compete for a playoff spot, I’ve had this match circled on my calendar. Obviously I want the Roots to be truly great, but I don’t think they’re there yet. The Roots beat San Diego, which is excellent, and part and parcel of playing that level is playing well against teams like Orange County. I think the Roots are ready to do that. 2-1 Roots.
Lawson - It is beyond strange to me that OCSC have spent as much time in second in the division as they have this season. This seems to be a product of the division having 2 teams everyone could beat up on (plus the first 11 or so games of Oakland’s season), and only one really good side. What I sense, based on really surface-level research, is that OCSC combine an opportunistic offense with a just-good-enough defense, a defense that seems to have lost a bit of its edge as the season has worn on. On the other hand, Roots' road form is spotty. Since the ref-induced debacle in Tacoma, Oakland are 2-1-1 on the road, but the two wins were both against Las Vegas Lights, which is nice and all, but hardly translates. Oakland are more than capable of beating OCSC at this point in the season, but I’m not ready to predict a big road win. I think this one ends 1-1.
For whatever reason FBref puts Tacoma over Oakland here, but Oakland currently holds the tiebreaker which is head-to-head record. The second tie-breaker is goal differential in head-to-head matches, which Roots currently leads by two goals. The next tie-breaker after that is in-division points, so we don’t need to worry about running up the margins. Obviously this is currently academic; the Roots don’t play Tacoma again until October 20, when the odds of them being on the same points as Tacoma are low. Speaking of which, I put together this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gwkMqCA8WVvypzQRv7k-wFPTyUQcU9y6NH2Q2uE_xHQ/edit?usp=sharing
I will try to keep this updated as we move forward, and will re-share it in future blog posts.
Every relevant Pacific Division team has an end to the season that is completely loaded with divisional matches. Sac and Galaxy may need a little luck, Rising and Lights' fates are sealed, but everyone else I think controls their destiny not just with making the playoffs but with what their seeding would be.
Predictions
Bloom - Orange County appear to be a good, but not great, team. Ronaldo Damus is a good striker with 13 goals, but their leading assists man (and tied for second-most goals) is Chris Wehan, who you may know now plays for New Mexico United. Ever since it became clear that the Roots could compete for a playoff spot, I’ve had this match circled on my calendar. Obviously I want the Roots to be truly great, but I don’t think they’re there yet. The Roots beat San Diego, which is excellent, and part and parcel of playing that level is playing well against teams like Orange County. I think the Roots are ready to do that. 2-1 Roots.
Lawson - It is beyond strange to me that OCSC have spent as much time in second in the division as they have this season. This seems to be a product of the division having 2 teams everyone could beat up on (plus the first 11 or so games of Oakland’s season), and only one really good side. What I sense, based on really surface-level research, is that OCSC combine an opportunistic offense with a just-good-enough defense, a defense that seems to have lost a bit of its edge as the season has worn on. On the other hand, Roots' road form is spotty. Since the ref-induced debacle in Tacoma, Oakland are 2-1-1 on the road, but the two wins were both against Las Vegas Lights, which is nice and all, but hardly translates. Oakland are more than capable of beating OCSC at this point in the season, but I’m not ready to predict a big road win. I think this one ends 1-1.
Cant believe you've never clicked on Akeem Ward's page on FB Ref. Stunning display of shade.
ReplyDelete"This game was noteworthy because Joe Restani started. The dilemma of having academy call-ups that you’re excited to watch is that you don't get to see them unless critical players are injured or the game is out of reach. It would be great if the Roots had more laughers so we could see Restani and Mariona get on the pitch more"... <<< THIS
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