Oakland Roots vs. San Diego Loyal - Match Preview (September 11, 2021)
The Oakland Roots host the San Diego Loyal on September 11, 2021 at 7:00 p.m. at Laney College in our very own Oakland, California. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and KOFYTV, but don’t watch it there. Watch it at Laney and get behind your Roots.
Roots’ History Against San Diego: 0-0-1
Prior Match-Ups This Season
Roots and Loyal have somehow only met once so far this season, a 1-0 win by the Loyal in San Diego on June (!!!) 29. We previewed the match, in case you want to read us gush about Landon Donovan.
It has been so long since these teams matched up, that it would be impossible to go into detail on every game. It was apparently not even possible for our preview of the Lights game on Saturday, where I did not mention the Light’s then-most-recent fixture losing to Sacramento. Just did not even notice it. The Blog’s office is overflowing with mail from readers decrying the state of American sports journalism. We know that we need to do better. We owe it to you.
On August 28, Loyal jumped to an early 3-0 lead over Sacramento in Sacramento, conceded to make it 3-1, and then rode that score through to the end. The first goal was honestly pretty funny. A decent chip that might have been saved except it bounced off the defender’s hand in a questionable position, bouncing the ball over the keeper. Obviously Loyal would rather have the goal than the penalty. The other goals came on an Augustine Williams brace. Neither goal was spectacular; just simple professional striker’s goals. They will make you wish that Williams played for your club.
Roots’ History Against San Diego: 0-0-1
Prior Match-Ups This Season
Roots and Loyal have somehow only met once so far this season, a 1-0 win by the Loyal in San Diego on June (!!!) 29. We previewed the match, in case you want to read us gush about Landon Donovan.
Loyal’s Form Since the Last Match-Up
It has been so long since these teams matched up, that it would be impossible to go into detail on every game. It was apparently not even possible for our preview of the Lights game on Saturday, where I did not mention the Light’s then-most-recent fixture losing to Sacramento. Just did not even notice it. The Blog’s office is overflowing with mail from readers decrying the state of American sports journalism. We know that we need to do better. We owe it to you.
Anyway, here’s their fixture list:
[Source: FBRef.com]
Loyal are 5-1-5 since beating Oakland in June.
A couple of things really stick out here. The 2-1 win over OCSC is a quality result for anyone trying to secure a playoff spot in the Pacific division, even paired with a 2-1 loss to OCSC over the same span. Likewise, a 1-0 loss to Rising probably constitutes a respectable result. Real Monarchs are dead last in the Mountain Division, and in fact, their win over Loyal was their only win in their last six (if you go back to their last ten, their only wins are over Loyal and the Las Vegas lights, to Jon Comeaux’s eternal delight). More concerning for Loyal, they got a pair of 2-1 losses, both at home, to Tacoma Defiance.
I reached out to some of the folks at the Fair Weather Podcast (https://www.fairweatherpod.com/) and both Alan Underwood and Chris Walker were good enough to chat with me. Alan told me that he thinks the Tacoma games are basically just consequences of the team’s strategic set-up. The Loyal set up how they wanted, but Tacoma capitalized on the counters. That rings true for a young but talented team like Tacoma.
We’ll look at their most recent games.
Loyal’s last loss was to Orange County on August 21, in a match where all three goals were scored in a ten minute period. Loyal went ahead in the 56th when Tumi Moshobane put a pretty sweet finish in off of a long cross from the right, and just eight minutes later Ronaldo Damus equalized with a tidy finish of his own. The deadlock was short lived, as Sergio Chavez conceded an own goal two minutes later to put OCSC ahead. As a general matter, I think we should get rid of Own Goals as a player-specific stat. It seems like a weirdly public-shaming kind of thing, especially because a lot of Own Goals are completely beyond the accused-player’s control. Even if it is an incredibly bone-headed mistake (see, e.g. Arsenal Football Club), I don’t think it’s in the spirit of sportsmanship to harp on terrible errors. If you can’t credit the goal to an aggressively pressing forward, just call it a team OG and move on. Anyway, in this instance, Chevez knew nothing about the goal, a hard struck shot that was going wide went straight into his foot and rebounded into the net. That said, Chavez turned the ball over leading to the attack, Chavez failed to clear the ball in the box after he caught up, and he failed to put in any challenge a few seconds later. He somehow made three errors leading to the goal, none of which were the actual OG itself.
A couple of things really stick out here. The 2-1 win over OCSC is a quality result for anyone trying to secure a playoff spot in the Pacific division, even paired with a 2-1 loss to OCSC over the same span. Likewise, a 1-0 loss to Rising probably constitutes a respectable result. Real Monarchs are dead last in the Mountain Division, and in fact, their win over Loyal was their only win in their last six (if you go back to their last ten, their only wins are over Loyal and the Las Vegas lights, to Jon Comeaux’s eternal delight). More concerning for Loyal, they got a pair of 2-1 losses, both at home, to Tacoma Defiance.
I reached out to some of the folks at the Fair Weather Podcast (https://www.fairweatherpod.com/) and both Alan Underwood and Chris Walker were good enough to chat with me. Alan told me that he thinks the Tacoma games are basically just consequences of the team’s strategic set-up. The Loyal set up how they wanted, but Tacoma capitalized on the counters. That rings true for a young but talented team like Tacoma.
We’ll look at their most recent games.
Loyal’s last loss was to Orange County on August 21, in a match where all three goals were scored in a ten minute period. Loyal went ahead in the 56th when Tumi Moshobane put a pretty sweet finish in off of a long cross from the right, and just eight minutes later Ronaldo Damus equalized with a tidy finish of his own. The deadlock was short lived, as Sergio Chavez conceded an own goal two minutes later to put OCSC ahead. As a general matter, I think we should get rid of Own Goals as a player-specific stat. It seems like a weirdly public-shaming kind of thing, especially because a lot of Own Goals are completely beyond the accused-player’s control. Even if it is an incredibly bone-headed mistake (see, e.g. Arsenal Football Club), I don’t think it’s in the spirit of sportsmanship to harp on terrible errors. If you can’t credit the goal to an aggressively pressing forward, just call it a team OG and move on. Anyway, in this instance, Chevez knew nothing about the goal, a hard struck shot that was going wide went straight into his foot and rebounded into the net. That said, Chavez turned the ball over leading to the attack, Chavez failed to clear the ball in the box after he caught up, and he failed to put in any challenge a few seconds later. He somehow made three errors leading to the goal, none of which were the actual OG itself.
On August 28, Loyal jumped to an early 3-0 lead over Sacramento in Sacramento, conceded to make it 3-1, and then rode that score through to the end. The first goal was honestly pretty funny. A decent chip that might have been saved except it bounced off the defender’s hand in a questionable position, bouncing the ball over the keeper. Obviously Loyal would rather have the goal than the penalty. The other goals came on an Augustine Williams brace. Neither goal was spectacular; just simple professional striker’s goals. They will make you wish that Williams played for your club.
In their most recent match, San Diego beat LA Galaxy II 4-2. Always worth watching highlights of a 6-goal match:
Again Williams’ opener is a solid goal, but Roots fans will not be surprised to see a bunch of LA Galaxy II defenders completely ignoring their marks in the box. Williams set up the second, which was a pretty solid finish from Hertzog. The third and fourth were respectable goals, but like the first involved some pretty half-hearted defending. That being said, Oakland have faced that LA Galaxy II before and did not beat them that soundly.
Roots From Since Last Match-Up
Here’s the Roots fixture list:
Roots From Since Last Match-Up
Here’s the Roots fixture list:
[Source: FBRef.com]
Here’s the Pacific Division standings:
[Source: FBRef.com]
If you set aside the first three matches of the season, in the Roots' next nine matches (of which the Loyal match was the third) the Roots secured two points and scored two goals. Over the following eight matches, the Roots won 17 points and scored 13 goals. Before this latter stretch, the Roots’ leading goal-scorer alone on two goals was Jeremey Bokila.
I’m still not very interested in talking about whatever happened in Tampa. Here is Lawson’s write-up and Comeaux’s write-up of the win over Las Vegas. I thought the Roots looked the better team in Vegas, but they did not capitalize on opportunities and it could have cost them. It was stupid hot, but the Roots were playing something like their first choice team except for Johnny Rodriguez at striker. You’d really have hoped to see them put more than one past Las Vegas.
To return to my point about Bokila leading the team with two goals in mid-August, I thought I’d look into how the Roots stack up relative to the league for goals now.
I’m still not very interested in talking about whatever happened in Tampa. Here is Lawson’s write-up and Comeaux’s write-up of the win over Las Vegas. I thought the Roots looked the better team in Vegas, but they did not capitalize on opportunities and it could have cost them. It was stupid hot, but the Roots were playing something like their first choice team except for Johnny Rodriguez at striker. You’d really have hoped to see them put more than one past Las Vegas.
To return to my point about Bokila leading the team with two goals in mid-August, I thought I’d look into how the Roots stack up relative to the league for goals now.
[Source: FBRef.com]
The Roots are pretty close to the bottom in total goals, and fifth from the bottom in goals per 90, which is about what you’d expect, as they have really closed the gap in total games played over the last months. Roots jump another two places up if you exclude penalty goals. I have highlighted the other Pacific Division teams on this. Phoenix are obviously on a different level (although mortal, as we know). San Diego is good, and pairs that with a solid defense. LA Galaxy II scores goals but is among the four worst defenses in the league. All of the Pacific Division teams with the exception of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Galaxy II are within 0.25 goals against per 90, in the middle third of the league overall.
Even as the Roots are improving their overall goal scoring, no one goal-scorer is breaking away from the pack. I am not exactly sure what to make of that. It’s great that Mbumba, Enriquez, and Hernandez are all real threats to score, but it seems like the team is still more likely to score when Bokila is on the pitch, and to a modestly lesser extent Quincy Amarikwa. Will either of those two be available on Sunday? Who knows?! The injury report is currently empty, but neither traveled to Tampa or Vegas, and the team hasn’t posted training pictures in a minute.
Players to Watch
We don’t usually run a “Players to Watch” with a team we have already seen this season, but it has been some weeks since we saw the Loyal, and the folks at Fair Weather Podcast were good enough to give me some names for you. Unfortunately they gave me seven names, so we're highlighting most of the Loyal.
Charlie Adams # 6 - We highlighted Charlie Adams last time around, and his importance to this team has not waned. He remains the player with the most minutes for the Loyal, missing only 160 minutes of the Loyal season so far. Adams played his pre-senior years for Brentford, a club I have recently come to hate.
Collin Martin # 17 - Martin missed basically the entire month of July, but made his return off the bench against LA Galaxy II last weekend. Martin got the assist on the Moshobane goal that put away Galaxy II in that match, although Moshobane did most of the work.
Augustine Williams # 26 - 24-year-old Sierra Leonean striker Augustine Williams joined San Diego Loyal on loan from the LA Galaxy system on August 20, has played 212 minutes since joining, and has three goals and an assist in that time. He did not have much in the way of results through May and June for Los Dos, but got called up to MLS for seven appearances in July and August. He did not get on the score sheet in any of those, although only four appearances were longer than one minute of regular time. Nonetheless, as the highlights above show, Williams is dangerous, and he seems to be settling well into this Loyal attack. The Fair Weather folks highlighted Williams’ arrival for freeing up Hertzog and Moshobane behind him to get more involved in the attack.
Corey Hertzog # 21 - The 31-year-old native of Reading, Pennsylvania, and reigning USL Player of the Week, has 6 goals and 4 assists, a lot of which have come in the last five games. Hopefully that has a lot to do with Galaxy II and Vegas having lackadaisical defenses, but watch out for his partnership with Williams just in case. Hertzog had a tremendous 18-goal season for Reno in 2019, a season we have highlighted in the past because it featured Lindo Mfeka, Emrah Klimenta, and RootsBlog favorite Duke Lacroix. In 2010, Reading, Pennsylvania had the highest percentage of residents living in poverty of any city of over 65,000 people in the nation.
Tumi Moshobane # 11 - Moshobane leads Loyal with seven goals, collecting four of those in the last four matches. The 26-year-old South African is in his second season with Loyal. Moshobane came up with the Kaizer Chief, a team those of us with a tendency to get lost in Wikipedia rabbit holes remember because of the bonus track “Ruby” from the third Guitar Hero game.
Even as the Roots are improving their overall goal scoring, no one goal-scorer is breaking away from the pack. I am not exactly sure what to make of that. It’s great that Mbumba, Enriquez, and Hernandez are all real threats to score, but it seems like the team is still more likely to score when Bokila is on the pitch, and to a modestly lesser extent Quincy Amarikwa. Will either of those two be available on Sunday? Who knows?! The injury report is currently empty, but neither traveled to Tampa or Vegas, and the team hasn’t posted training pictures in a minute.
Players to Watch
We don’t usually run a “Players to Watch” with a team we have already seen this season, but it has been some weeks since we saw the Loyal, and the folks at Fair Weather Podcast were good enough to give me some names for you. Unfortunately they gave me seven names, so we're highlighting most of the Loyal.
Charlie Adams # 6 - We highlighted Charlie Adams last time around, and his importance to this team has not waned. He remains the player with the most minutes for the Loyal, missing only 160 minutes of the Loyal season so far. Adams played his pre-senior years for Brentford, a club I have recently come to hate.
Collin Martin # 17 - Martin missed basically the entire month of July, but made his return off the bench against LA Galaxy II last weekend. Martin got the assist on the Moshobane goal that put away Galaxy II in that match, although Moshobane did most of the work.
Augustine Williams # 26 - 24-year-old Sierra Leonean striker Augustine Williams joined San Diego Loyal on loan from the LA Galaxy system on August 20, has played 212 minutes since joining, and has three goals and an assist in that time. He did not have much in the way of results through May and June for Los Dos, but got called up to MLS for seven appearances in July and August. He did not get on the score sheet in any of those, although only four appearances were longer than one minute of regular time. Nonetheless, as the highlights above show, Williams is dangerous, and he seems to be settling well into this Loyal attack. The Fair Weather folks highlighted Williams’ arrival for freeing up Hertzog and Moshobane behind him to get more involved in the attack.
Corey Hertzog # 21 - The 31-year-old native of Reading, Pennsylvania, and reigning USL Player of the Week, has 6 goals and 4 assists, a lot of which have come in the last five games. Hopefully that has a lot to do with Galaxy II and Vegas having lackadaisical defenses, but watch out for his partnership with Williams just in case. Hertzog had a tremendous 18-goal season for Reno in 2019, a season we have highlighted in the past because it featured Lindo Mfeka, Emrah Klimenta, and RootsBlog favorite Duke Lacroix. In 2010, Reading, Pennsylvania had the highest percentage of residents living in poverty of any city of over 65,000 people in the nation.
Tumi Moshobane # 11 - Moshobane leads Loyal with seven goals, collecting four of those in the last four matches. The 26-year-old South African is in his second season with Loyal. Moshobane came up with the Kaizer Chief, a team those of us with a tendency to get lost in Wikipedia rabbit holes remember because of the bonus track “Ruby” from the third Guitar Hero game.
[Editor’s Note: this track reached #1 on the charts in the UK; Second Editor’s Note: Siphewe Tshabalala was on the Kaizer Chiefs at the time he scored the opening goal in the 2010 World Cup--only Bloom learned about this from Wikipedia].
Austin Guerrero # 1 - Guerrero wears the number 1, but he was not San Diego’s first choice in goal until Trey Muse went down with an injury. Guerrero has a 73% save percentage on shots on goal, which sounds shaky to me, but I am not the most familiar with GK stats. Either way, here’s hoping the Radicals and La Brigada have “hey you need a goalie” audible on the tv broadcast.
Predictions
Bloom - the problem with doing these previews is that by the time I get around to writing the prediction, I’ve spent hours thinking about the opponent’s attack. With competent teams, which clearly includes San Diego, that means I’m always afraid they’re going to dominate, even if I usually predict Roots wins. I’m worried about this San Diego attack. Augustine Williams seems like a huge signing, and Moshobane and Hertzog are talented enough to capitalize on the space Williams frees up. But, the Roots play well at Laney. I am calling for 2-2, which I will consider a good result and a sign that the Roots can push on to compete for the playoffs. If Bokila and Quincy are both still missing, however, all bets are off.
Lawson - I’ve mentioned in each of the last three recaps that I think that Oakland need to either (1) figure out how to play on the counter regularly or (2) figure out how to flip the script on possession-heavy San Diego in order to win this one. I don’t see it happening. Roots have started to show some cracks on defense, and that’s a problem facing an attack as in-form as San Diego’s. I’m not going to advocate playing a more defensive shape, though. Given Roots’ spot in the standings, they need all 3 points. A draw is basically worthless, so I expect they’ll come out like a house afire. I predict Roots will get a goal early, San Diego will even the score before halftime, and then Loyal will put the game away early in the second half before Roots threaten but fail to capitalize on some late chances. 3-1 Loyal.
Austin Guerrero # 1 - Guerrero wears the number 1, but he was not San Diego’s first choice in goal until Trey Muse went down with an injury. Guerrero has a 73% save percentage on shots on goal, which sounds shaky to me, but I am not the most familiar with GK stats. Either way, here’s hoping the Radicals and La Brigada have “hey you need a goalie” audible on the tv broadcast.
Predictions
Bloom - the problem with doing these previews is that by the time I get around to writing the prediction, I’ve spent hours thinking about the opponent’s attack. With competent teams, which clearly includes San Diego, that means I’m always afraid they’re going to dominate, even if I usually predict Roots wins. I’m worried about this San Diego attack. Augustine Williams seems like a huge signing, and Moshobane and Hertzog are talented enough to capitalize on the space Williams frees up. But, the Roots play well at Laney. I am calling for 2-2, which I will consider a good result and a sign that the Roots can push on to compete for the playoffs. If Bokila and Quincy are both still missing, however, all bets are off.
Lawson - I’ve mentioned in each of the last three recaps that I think that Oakland need to either (1) figure out how to play on the counter regularly or (2) figure out how to flip the script on possession-heavy San Diego in order to win this one. I don’t see it happening. Roots have started to show some cracks on defense, and that’s a problem facing an attack as in-form as San Diego’s. I’m not going to advocate playing a more defensive shape, though. Given Roots’ spot in the standings, they need all 3 points. A draw is basically worthless, so I expect they’ll come out like a house afire. I predict Roots will get a goal early, San Diego will even the score before halftime, and then Loyal will put the game away early in the second half before Roots threaten but fail to capitalize on some late chances. 3-1 Loyal.
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